Tag Archives: news

Gas Prices: Is the Sky Really the Limit?

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As we noted in our earlier post last week, there was another mix of good and potentially bad economic news. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) broke through 13,000 for the first time since May 2008, gas prices were projected to approach levels not seen since the spring of 2008. Although actual gas prices are still below even those of May 2011 when gas reached $4.02 per gallon, this is undoubtedly bad news in a nation that consumes more energy than any other nation on earth.

The factors driving this latest rise are the same as those that drive any market: supply and demand. Basically, gas prices are up because supplies are (at least potentially) down. In 2008, surging gas prices were the result of two factors: decreased supply due to U.S. refinery problems, and surging crude oil prices. While there was little to be done about the latter (other than consumer behavior decreasing demand), the U.S. was able to get refinery capacity back and, as the graph below shows, gas prices decreased steadily after that. As for the current rise in gas prices, the primary factor is once again supply, or more correctly, the fear of diminishing supply and a little international political intrigue that is driving that fear.

In recent days, Iran placed an oil embargo on France and Britain and considered extending that embargo to other European Countries. While this does not directly affect the United States, which has banned the import of Iranian Oil since the Hostage Crisis of 1979, it does introduce new buyers competing for oil normally purchased by the U.S. However, it is unlikely that a supply shortage will actually occur. For that to happen, Iran would have to stop supplying oil to the world market and, given that oil is Iran’s main source of income, it is doubtful that will happen.

We are interested in your thoughts on this. Did you know gas is actually less expensive now than it was in May 2011 or July 2008? Join the discussion below or let us know via Twitter or Facebook.

Rising Unemployment among Youth (Ages 16-24) in the OECD

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In last week’s post on the December 2011 unemployment numbers in the OECD, we showed how the total unemployment rate across the OECD has remained relatively stable in recent months, ending December 2010 at 8.2%; the same rate as in November 2010. While some countries—i.e., Germany and the United States—have seen a consistent decrease in unemployment since September 2011, the majority of states have not been so lucky: Spain, for example, ended 2010 with a shocking 22.8% unemployment rate, more than 8% higher than the country with the second highest unemployment rate (Ireland, with 14.5%).

What we did not discuss at the time, however, was the disproportionate impact the economic crisis has had on certain age groups. Today, we look at unemployment trends among the youth (ages 16-24); trends that are much more alarming than the overall unemployment trends.

The first chart, below, displays youth unemployment rates from January 2000 through December 2011 for the EA-17 (e.g., the 17 European Union member states that have adopted the Euro as their currency) and the EU-27 (e.g., all 27 European Union member states). From a low of around 15% unemployment at the start of the economic crisis in 2008, youth unemployment has grown to over 21% in 2011 with no sign of abating.

Source: Eurostat

The following chart uses the same Eurostat data, but looks at within-country trends over the past 4 years. We’ve also included the United States in this sample.

Note: The data labels represent the unemployment rates in Q3-2011.

 

Viewing the data in this way shows just how dire the situation is for younger job seekers in many countries. In Spain, the youth unemployment rate rose from an already high 24.6% in 2008 to 47.8% by the third quarter of 2011, more than twice as high as the total unemployment rate of 22.8%. A similar trend is seen in the other Southern European countries, including Italy (from 21.3% in 2008 to 28.2% in 2011), Greece (from 22.1% in 2008 to 45.8% in 2011), and Portugal (from 20.2% in 2008 to 29.9% in 2011).

As for the United States, the youth unemployment rate increased from 12.8% in 2008 to 17.5% in 2011; well below the EU-27 average of 21.6% in 2011, but close to double that of Germany (8.6%), Austria (7.3%), and the Netherlands (7.6%).

In short, it is important to keep different demographic age groups in mind as we evaluate economic trends. From this data, it is clear that the youth have been particularly affected by the Great Recession, and the recent economic gains (at least in the case of the United States) have done little to improve the situation of this group.

 

TheFactFile.com: The Week in Review

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TheFactFile.com is a non-partisan fact-checking site that analyzes the facts behind the big issues of the day. Our goal is to let facts and data speak for themselves, regardless of whether that makes us appear “liberal”, “moderate”, “conservative”, or something else entirely.  This first week has been a lot of fun for the staff at TheFactFile.com, seeing our dream come to life.  If you had seen the excitement when our first retweet happened and our first comment arrived you would have retweeted and commented all day.

While we work on more articles for next week, we decided to give you an easy way to catch up with what was up on TheFactFile.com this past week.

 

Monday:

Fact Checking the Fact Checkers - In this article, we answer the big question of why we decided to start TheFactFile.com.

The Iowa Caucuses: A Primer - The Iowa caucuses mark the start of the election season. But what is a caucus? And how important is Iowa in selecting nominees for president?

 

Tuesday:

The Iowa Caucuses: Voter Turnout - This article analyzes past trends in voter turnout for the Iowa caucuses. And the result? Turnout is extremely low, even in “hot” years.

The Iowa Caucuses: Is Iowa Representative of the Rest of the U.S.? - Is Iowa representative of the rest of the US? Here we analyze official demographic/economic data to show that the answer is… yes and no.

 

Wednesday:

2012 Iowa Caucuses: Trends in Last Night’s Voting - This article looks at how demographic and economic characteristics affected voting in the 2012 Iowa caucuses.

Income Inequality in the U.S.: Are the Rich Really Getting Richer? - Is income inequality increasing the the US? Here we answer this question by examining CPS data from 1967-present. The short answer: yes.

 

Thursday:

The Endless Campaign for the Presidency - If it seems like presidential campaigns are getting longer, well…they are. Here we look at the average length of campaigns from FDR to today.

 

Friday:

New Year’s Resolutions: Six Days and Counting - 75% of people who make New Year’s resolutions fail within 6 months. This article looks at research on the determinants of success or failure.

 

Please remember to register so you can comment on TheFactFile.Com without having to fill out the captcha box each time—it is free and easy!

 

Welcome to The Fact File

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Welcome to The Fact File!

Welcome to a new year and a new way of presenting information.  This is the first day of what we hope will be a very successful and long-lasting project. As you will learn by visiting our story, the goal of The Fact File is to improve public discourse by informing, rather than persuading. Our content will look at the important issues of the day, but, unlike other sites these days, will do so without any ideological spin one way or the other. We care about what the facts are, and believe firmly in Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s famous quote: “everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts.”

We aim to be an independent source of information and, as such, rely solely on donations and third-party ad placement—instead of directly solicited advertisements—for support. So if you like what we’re doing and want to help make the site even better, please do! And your support doesn’t have to be financial: if you like what you see, please tell your friends. At the same time, if you don’t like what you see, please tell us so that we can improve going forward. Finally, if you have ideas for something we should write about or want us to look into something specific, please contact us.

We are grateful for our nearly 2,000 Twitter followers and our nearly 1,000 Facebook fans, all of whom joined us before we published a single word.  We are also grateful to Stony Brook University for allowing us to participate in their intern program.  And, of course, we are grateful for our readers—especially those who are visiting us this first day.  Given that this is a new site and that we are researchers, not web developers, we ask for your patience in the coming months.

While we are in our start-up phase, we will have new content Monday through Friday, so make sure to check back every day.  Saturdays we will recap our stories of the week and Sundays we will offer a preview of the week to come.  We have a number of topics planned for the coming months and we’re sure many more will come up during this exciting time in the United States and throughout the world.  In addition to Facebook and Twitter, you can follow our RSS feed to stay up to date with what we are writing about.

 

This Week on The Fact File

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We have a full week of exciting topics ahead of us for Iowa Caucus week.

 

Monday January 2, 2012: Fact Checking the Fact Checkers

We answer the quintessential (or at least most frequently asked) question: why do we need The Fact File?

 

Tuesday January 3, 2012: The History of the Iowa Caucus , Parts 1, 2, and 3 

We provide an interesting (and possibly entertaining) look at the history of the Iowa Caucuses, the state of Iowa itself, and answer questions like “what are the Democrats doing on Caucus Day?”

 

Wednesday January 4, 2012: Income Disparity in the U.S.

In this post, we look at whether there really is income disparity in the United States or if it just depends on how you look at the data.

 

Thursday January 5, 2012: The Endless Campaign

Midway between the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, we take a moment to look at whether the presidential campaign really is getting longer or if it is just that we think it has.

 

Friday January 6, 2012: New Year’s Resolutions

To celebrate the end of the first workweek with your New Year’s Resolutions in effect, we look at the odds you will succeed and how you may be able to improve those odds.

 

Saturday January 7, 2012, Weekly Recap:

We will take you on a whirlwind tour of the week that was.